Nasdaq JACO Thread

[brokedown]

Sitting on the 61% fib retrace and ema13 and oversold.

nice news on 4/15.
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tdameritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={10BFDBDE-C536-4C8D-832D-05277A23ECCD}

[Naamplao]

Yes it was nice news on April 15 and the market responded accordingly. But now it is old news and the share price is in retreat.

I, like you, put more faith in charts and TA than fundamentals and rumour.

I do my TA a different way from you so let us go through my take on things an see what conclusion for the future I come up with.

TA Analysis

First I will start off with a 6 month line chart from Yahoo Finance (I would rather use the SharpChart from StockCharts.com but this will do as I cannot show the SharpChart the way I'd like.)



Nice rise in price...or rather leap in price. Note the Bollinger bands were narrow and now are wide apart. I hope you bought prior to April 7 as they narrowed. The share price is falling back slowly and is currently against a support level made by the 200dayMA ($1.53)...also the RSI is headed for 50% and the volume is getting very low again...or rather it is returning to normal.

When I look at the SharpChart for more info...I see the TRIX is starting to show a rounded top...the Accum/Dist does show a healthy jump.

What I read from this is that interest is waning in the stock. While it has hit the support level I am not sure this is strong support.

A Look at the P&F chart gives us a longer term view of the Share Price.



See the diagonal that is formed by the declining prices on the right? Join the peak to peak levels and you construct a line that goes right below the current April18 closing price....a confirmation of this point $1.54 as being a support level.....so it may well be strong support.

I like the fact that the share price crashed through this "resistance" line on the way up and now it has become a support line.

If it rebounds off this line then $1.90 is the next resistance level to pass...Then there are a whole series of small resistances on the way to a real big one at $2.40. This will be a winner stock in a big sense if it passes $2.40

If it falls through the support line at $1.54 then it will probably fall to the next support level which could be $1.30 or more likely $1.05. The latter is pretty strong support.

Now for the next week here is the 5 day line chart from Yahoo



Looks like a pretty well linear decline doesn't it. The Bollinger Bands are not tightening so the drift won't change. I don't like how the stock is consistently below the 50minMA I also don't like the position of the Friday closing price.

Based on the above analysis,

The best you can hope for at this time is that the stock will rebound and begin a sideways movement for a while before moving upward again.

The worst you can expect at this time is that the stock continues its decline and breaks through the support line(which will again become a resistance line again) and head down to the lower support levels

Personally...I don't think there will be a rebound...I hope I am wrong.

[brokedown]