MSFT - Microsoft Cp

[Stock_Analyzer]

&P REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF MICROSOFTFont size: A | A | Aundefined undefined | S&P Marketscope
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4:00 PM ET 6/12/08
Symbol Last % Chg
MSFT 28.24 4.13%
Real time quote.

SNPMarketScopeResearchNotes2008-06-12 16:13:44.000MSFTMICROSOFT CORPJ.Yin,D.CathersS&P REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF MICROSOFTShares are up over 4% after news broke that MSFT's acquisition talks with Yahoo! (YHOO 23.52***) ended without an agreement. The share price had fallen over 15% since the offer was announced on February 1. We are encouraged by MSFT's discipline, since it did not offer a price it was not comfortable with. At the same time, we view as favorable that the company is looking for ways to put its cash reserves to work to spur growth. We think the current valuation is attractive. We are keeping our 12-month target price at $43, on our blended DCF and P/E analyses.|US;MSFT|31003|205778

[Stock_Analyzer]

Big Board lovers check out this chart: Could be boomtime coming really soon

MSFT - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

[Naamplao]

I thought I would comment on Microsoft's share price. The hype is that the share price is set to rise following the breakdown in negotiations with Yahoo.

Does the charts reflect this sentiment???

Here is my Sharpchart

MSFT - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Well the RSI is showing a small up-tick to slightly above 50%. The TRIX and Accum/Dist does show signs of reversing their downward drift...but is this reflecting the hype...not yet IMHO

There is some positive if the recrossing of the 50dayMA by the share price....if it closes above this line. I think it will do so.

There is a sudden start to narrowing of the Bollinger Bands....this says to me there will be a major movement coming.....this latest up-tick is not the major movement....it may be the beginning of it...but it isn't here yet!

Here is the P&F chart



Hmmmm....so the pundits predict $43.00 rise eh??? Based on what? Failed negotiations with Yahoo? They say Microsoft is now free to pursue other acquisitions....what are they??? So far this seems like wishful thinking to me at this point...there is nothing in the P&F chart to generate such optimism IMHO.

The stock must pass through several resistance points to clear the current bearish rating in the chart.

Support is at $27.00-$27.50....this is clear. The first resistance point is at $29.50 which today (June 13) it hit and fell back. Falling that you have another resistance at $30.00...then a huge resistance at $31.00ish

If it passes $31.00 it will become bullish....but not until then.

Here is the 5 day Yahoo linechart



Yep....the hype caused a nice surge in volume and price. But already you are seeing a fall off in volume, price and relative strength.

You can see that resistance point at $29.50 in effect. You can also see the support at $27.00 and the drift towards it again.

Will Microsoft shares rise as per the hype? Perhaps, but the charts don't show it yet in my opinion. Rise above $31 and I would believe it but it will struggle to get there as simply a failed negotiation with Yahoo is not enough to drive it very far...it will take more news than that.

My prediction is the stock will move sideways....although watch that Bollinger band in the sharpchart....it is tightening and that is the weasel in this analysis. The current spike is not the result of the tightened BB's...that movement up/down is yet to come.

[Naamplao]

I was right...all hype...no action. This stock will test the support at $27.50 and if it breaks it the prospects are for further downward drift.

The support at $27.50 is pretty strong though....this might be a spot to catch a low bid before a rebound.

[Stock_Analyzer]

After 2 strong days in a row, watch for MSFT to test 27.75 or 28.00 range if we get a follow up green day tomorrow

[Naamplao]

Time to re-comment on this stock after 2 months.

So that huge hype about Microsoft rising following the failed merger with Yahoo was just hot air. What did happen was negative drift to about $25.50 and sideways movement for the past couple of weeks.

Here is the sharpchart : MSFT - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

First let's start with the Accum/Dist...the negative decline looks like it has been arrested. It is a bit early to be sure but there are indications that investors are starting to accumulate the stock again...but then again it could be a blip on the curve...the decline seems to be stopped though.

The TRIX is looking better after some sideways movement...again is it sustainable???

The RSI is kinda bland oscillating between 40-60...it is on an up-tick of late but similar to the TRIX and Accum/Dist...is it sustainable???

It is hard to tell by this chart but the Bollinger Bands are expanding again but not to dramatic as they have been doing this for a couple of days now.

On the plus side the share price has broken the 50 dayMA....a good sign...however the trend for the 50dayMA is still negative. You can see the sideways movement in this chart with support around $25 and resistance at about $27.50...more on that in the P&F chart.

Here is the P&F chart



I have made the box $0.25 to see more movement from the $0.50 chart in my last post.

We are far from calling the latest movement bullish. There is some support at $26.00 with stronger support at $25.25. The resistance is clearer in the previous chart at about $27.50 though you can see it in the above chart too.

There are many resistance points to pass through before this turns bullish...a huge one appears at between $29-29.25 and this stock must pass through $31.00 before we can even think of this stock being bullish.

Here is the short term 5 day look



Wow!....nice 5 day run...We should challenge the $27.50 resistance today. The momentum looks good enough to proceed to the $29 level....but is it enough to blast through these levels...it remains to be seen. A good turning point but I would wait til it breaches $31 before I would say the rebound is lasting. I think the rise will not continue for long and it will fall back again...but long term it is looking better than 2 months ago.

[Naamplao]

well 2 weeks later and what do we have??

Here is the Sharpchart again: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSF...d=p46211754396

As I thought the rise was not sustainable and we have drifted back slightly negative. You can see in the sharpchart there is resistance at $28.00. We hit it twice and fell back. The major support right now is the 50dayMA which is at about $26.90 currently

You cannot see it here but the BB's are just starting to compress a bit...there will be no sudden price movements either way in the next little while IMO.

I won't redraw the P&F chart again....look at it below....nothing much has changed.

The 5 day line chart below shows that slow negative drift. I would expect this to continue for a while as the BB's start to get tighter.

I expect a lot of sideways movement drifting negative to the 50dayMA at $26.90. At that point we shall see if it rebounds or falls through it to a secondary support at $25.25

Could we reach $25.25? I think so...but it will hesitate for a while around $26.90 as 50dayMA's are good support levels.

[Ray The Money Man]

I think Mr. Softie is going to have to shed some market cap [spend money] for this thing to move. Looks like dead money right now and I won't lie, I am still sitting on some Yahoo that I bought in the...I think it was the $18.00 range. I never have been much of a tech trader. Well, APPLE is a different story.

[Naamplao]

Well the stock did fall to the 50dayMA ($26.90) and it turned into a reasonable support for the share price.

Here is the Sharpchart again: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSF...d=p46211754396

The Accum/Dist and TRIX are mildly positive while the RSI wanders in mediocrity.

The support and resistance lines are easier to see here than in the P&F chart.

$28.00 is the resistance and the 50day50 is the support. The BB's are wide apart so nothing serious will happen for a while

In the P&F



You can see that $27.25 is the first level support and this appears to be holding up fine. You can see this in the 5 day linechart below



It looks like there might be a bit of a surge tomorrow Aug 26. It may even challenge $28.00 but I doubt it will have the legs to crash it. I expect the share price to drift sideways for at least a few days