I thought that I would open a thread to offer TA on any stock on US or Canadian exchanges.

The format of my analysis will be similar to what I have given on previous posts that I have made. I give a Yahoo 5 day linechart for immediate assessment, a SharpChart for a short term view and a P&F chart for a longer term view.

These charts update automatically as time goes on but I will only comment on the analysis once here. If the stock looks like a real winner I may copy it over to the appropriate exchange where I will follow it more closely and give periodic updates.

Please just give me one stock per reply. Don't give me a grocery list of several stocks in one reply....if you do I will just comment on the first in the list.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Well I appreciated your analysis on Visa and I am also long on GA

Question, I am kind of new to p&f charting and was curious as to why you use $0.50 cent increments above the $20 price range such as your chart on Visa? Is there any benefit to that as most charts I have seen use the dollar increments above $20 range.

So if you could post your analysis on GA

Thanks in advance.

I took a quick look at Visa (V) and my forecast for this stock is basically unchanged. It has sunk below the support level and now has created a fairly stable support at $82.00

As far as using P&F charts goes...you are correct most standard charts would use a $1 box for a stock at this level. But what I do is experiment a bit and create several charts with different sized boxes until I see one that makes sense to me.

If you choose one with too small a box you get great whipsaws of change that are meaningless to me. If you use a box that is too large then you lose the subtle changes in the share price that can signal a reversal or jump in price. You will also see that I base my charts on Closing Price only. It is a personal preference

Take Visa for the example

Here is the chart at a box of $1 and at $.50



As you can see I can spot the support level easier with the $.50 box.....the stock is fairly stable right now so the $.50 works best...if there was lots of share price movement then I might change to $1....TA is as much an art as a science IMHO

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Analysis of GA (Giant Interactive Group Inc.

This is a very interesting stock and I can see why you would like an opinion on it.

Here is the SharpChart that I use

GA - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

This is another new stock that generated a lot of excitement when it was issued last year then fell as profit takers and others backed out of the ipo...(this is the reason I don't like ipo's )

But that is history now....the stock has found its bottom and is on the rise again.

I like the strong RSI...it has fallen from the "overbought" level but still lingers near the 70% level. Notice that the decline of the Accum/Dist has been arrested and now it is strongly positive. The TRIX is also looking good too. It is showing a rounded top and it may be a decline coming but it sort of looks like the same as the previous plateau...in fact the situation looks identical.

The share price has risen above the 50dayMA which is good. The Bollinger bands are still expanded following the previous leap in price...and you are seeing the stock move sideways for the past 2 weeks and that is to be expected.

I would expect the stock to wander sideways a bit more before the BB's start to narrow. Support seems to be holding at $15.50 looking at this chart.

Here is the P&F chart



See the pennant!!! This is very important and you must be vigilant.

The $15.50 support level is confirmed in this chart. There is a big change in price going to happen but it won't happen til the BB's start to narrow and that is about a week away IMHO.

If this stock closed below $15.25 then I would consider selling it immediately.

Let us look at the 5 day Yahoo linechart for the immediate future



You can see that the $15.25 level has been tested a couple of times but it keeps on rebounding. The volume is increasing. I would say there will be a slight rise tomorrow (May 18).

My advice on this one is that you will have to watch this stock like a hawk for the next week. The pennant indicates a sudden movement soon but I cannot say if it will be up or down...If I had to bet I would say it will be up but this is a gamble and I could be wrong there. Note also that the price is almost exactly where it started as an IPO and this might be influencing the price.

I hope this helps....

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Well that major movement happened a lot faster than I expected. It was down unfortunately...it was very difficult to predict as I said and my "guess" was wrong which is why I don't like guessing.

If you still have the stock there is hope for a bounce. I am not sure there will be a turnaround...it does not look good for that yet but there is a resistance level at $14.00. From the 5 day chart by Yahoo you can see the BB's start to narrow so there could be a bit of a recovery.

On a positive note....even though the stock had a bad fall the Accum/Dist did nt follow suit with a dramatic fall. The long term BB's of a sharpChart are not closed yet so it might well be that there will be a rebound followed by a sideways movement til the BB's tighten.

If it stays above $14.00 there is still a chance...falling below $14.00 would not be good.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Thanks again, very, very helpful. Same with Visa as I was stopped out of that also this week, still a nice ipo profit.

Not sure why no one else is taking advantage of your wizardry and I did not want to hog this post so I would like your thoughts on CLR to keep it going.

Trading a bit down the last few days but recently on a nice run up due to oil and natural gas spike which I'm sure will continue thoughout the summer.

Thanks

Don't worry about hogging the thread...seems to be just you and me here.

Let's look at CLR...here is my SharpChart for it

CLR - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wow...what a sweet chart. This stock has been riding the upper Bolinger band for a couple of months now. I hope you bought it in the $25 range

There is absolutely no negatives in this chart that I can see. Sure it is "over bought" but it has been like this for a month now with no ill effect. The TRIX seems to be on the fence but even here there is a slight +ve upturn visible.

The Accum/Dist shows a healthy +ve slope above its 20dayMA showing accumulation not selling off this stock.

Looks good so far....

Here is the P&F chart for long term stuff



An equally amazing P&F chart!!! There is not an awfull lot of history to work with here since the stock is only 1 year old. It sort of languished in the $20-$30 range soon after being ipo'd and now has taken off.

At a gain of about 200% in 5 months or so one must expect a slowdown to occur at some point and perhaps we are seeing it topping out for a while.

The resistance line would be the highest top or $63.00. It is not really strong as a resistance though. The support line for long term support is at $53.50 this is a long way back and a loss of significant profit if you wait for this and it crashes through the support. But I would not predict a crash through this support.

There is a minor support line seen in the SharpChart of $60.00. This is not all that strong but it does exist.

Let's look at the 5 day Yahoo.com LineChart for next week's outlook.



Well I will rethink my previous thought....the $60.00 - $59.00 level seems to be reasonably strong as a support level.

Look at how tight the Bollinger Bands are right now!!! There soon will be a significant movement. Will it be up or down....hmmmmm

The final shareprice is above the 50minMA which is also above the 200minMA...a good sign. The MACD has a small uptick...the RSI is positive.

I would predict that the the stock is going to rebound and move in a positive fashion...perhaps continuing sideways for a while. I almost think that it will move to challenge the $63.00 level by the end of the next week.

Depending on where you bought in of course, I would not sell unless this stock fell below $53.50..but I doubt it will far that distance as everything is so positve...nice stock.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Naaploa, thanks for your insite on CLR

I hit my 15 price target rather quickly with this one and I expect a little pullback from this weeks high so maybe another buying oppertunity awaits.

I think eventually oil has to come down but one never knows. I'd like to take a look at "DUG" as this eft may be at it's bottom. Lot of volume recently.

Thanks

Yes this stock looks good. I took a quick look at the charts and see no end or pullback. Your support is at $65 but I doubt it will fall back to this point for a long time. The bollinger bands are expanding again! and the stock price just wants to hug the upper BB. You may be like me on Grand Cache Coal (GCE.TO) I sold way early at $5.60 and now it is over $9...but a profit is a profit.

You will have to be much more careful on this one....here is the sharpchart

DUG - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The positives are

- the Accum/dist has dramatically reversed
- the TRIX is nicely turned positive
- the volume is ever increasing....but volume by itself is not definitive.

The negatives are

- the RSI has retreated from 50% in spite of the high volume
- the 50day MA has retreated from crossing the 200 dayMA and shows no sign of going towards the 200dayMA right now...in fact the slope is more negative.
- the share price is lower than all MA's including the 20 dayMA at the centre of the Bollinger bands
- the Bollinger bands are in a negative slope with no sign of reversing.

My first impression is that the bottom has not been found yet. The stock price and indicators look like a repeat of what happened at the end of April.

Here is the P&F chart



you have a small pennant forming here.

your support is at $27.50 and the resistance is at $29.50...getting more and more narrow.

Going back to the Sharpchart....the Bollinger bands are tightening so there will be a major movement coming soon....

Here is the 5 day line chart from yahoo



you can see the $27.50 support and $29.50 resistance in this chart as well.

On the surface it looks like this shareprice is climbing in this chart but I am not so sure...I think it is just an overshoot during the recovery from the bad start to the day...I don't think this has legs.

My advice is do not jump in right now.

I don't think the bottom has been reached. There is a price movement coming and my spidey nerves says it will be negative. If I am wrong and it shoots over $30.50 and stays there...then you may have something here. But as I said...I don't think this will happen yet.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Again, thanks for your advice.

Just kind of looking ahead at DUG and also starting to accumulate some of the oversold refinery stocks as well such as wnr, fto, tso. A correction in the oil sector and you could hopefully see some nice profits by years end so I will keep a close eye on your chart of dug as well.

You were correct on every stock I posted here so I'm kind of suprised no one else has stepped up.

Thanks for you time Naamplao.

No problem...I thought I would comment on your other "potentials"

Western Refining Inc. (WNR - NYSE)

Here is the SharpChart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WNR...d=p67363108387

This looks like a solid rebound to me. The TRIX is very good, the Accum/Dist is falling a bit but then this stock has just had a nice jump in the last week or so. It broke a resistance level at $14, then fallen back on the $13.80ish support level and is moving sideways for a while. It has broken the 50day MA at $11.40 and this will be the secondary support...

Here is the P&F graph



Here is a much better look at your primary support. It is at $13.25 If this is a real winner it should bounce off of this support...otherwise it has a second chance at the 50 day MA at $11.40

Frontier Oil Corp (FTO - NYSE)

This stock is the opposite to WRN

Here is the SharpChart

FTO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The TRIX is plateauing, the RSI is less than 50% and the Accum/Dist is breaking below its 20dayMA

Here is the P&F chart



Here the gains earlier this month have quickly evaporated. Note that it has broken the support at $28.25...a stronger support is at $27.00 which on looking at the SharpChart roughly represents the 50dayMA

It may bounce off of this support line but I am not so sure of that given the rapidity of its fall. This is not a sideways movement after a BB jump...it is a mini-collapse.

Tesoro Petroleum Corp (TSO - NYSE)

Here is the Sharpchart

TSO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

This stock is similar to FTO...except it has a chance to recover.

Look at the P&F Chart



As you can see here the chart has not lost all of its gains....But there is a High Pole warning this is not a good omen. If it falls below $23.50 it will probably continue....looking for a bottom.

Conclusion

Oil stocks are a mystery to me right now. The price of oil is at a huge all time high yet there are many losers and a few winners.

In the three you are pondering....I like WNR...I don't like the other two

Hope this helps

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

KC61 - Western Refining Inc. (WNR - NYSE)

Well the stock fell through two levels of support since I commented on it. So I take away the "green" status I suppose it was wishful thinking on my part.

WNR is no better than the other two you were thinking about....it will be a while before these will turn around.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

I would just like to say it seems I was right about WNR as being the better of the three refineries.

The other two (Frontier Oil Corp (FTO - NYSE) and Tesoro Petroleum Corp (TSO - NYSE) ) are still heading down. Frontier Oil may stop its decline at around $25.25...if it doesn't it will go a fair bit lower.

Western Refining Inc. (WNR - NYSE) although it went further than I expected and fell through the first support at $13.25 but it was caught by a secondary support...not at the 50dayMA but the 20dayMA just beneath it.

Here is an updated SharpChart WNR - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

As you can see it is limping along with the 20dayMA as a support. Overall the stock looks in pretty good shape for recovery. The RSI has kept above 50%, The TRIX is still positive, the Accum/Dist has not shown a selloff.

The P&F chart in my original post is still valid, showing $11.00 being the support and $14.00 as the strong resistance.

So I wasn't that far off. I still would not classify this stock as a slam-dunk yet...it has a lot of work to do before that happens but it is head and tails above the other two.

On a final note....looking at the sharpchart you will see the Bollinger Bands starting to close. I would watch this stock over the next week as I think there will be movement during this time...up/down??? Can't tell yet.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Hi KC61

I would give those companies another look.

Tesoro Petroleum Corp (TSO - NYSE)
Frontier Oil Corp (FTO - NYSE)

Have fallen a long way as predicted in my post below but I think they are showing signs of having reached a bottom.

Western Refining Inc. (WNR - NYSE)

has fallen too but not as much as the others...I did like WNR better at the time but now I would watch them all...with a preference for TSO and FTO

They are not slam dunks yet .... but it is now that you should pay attention to them IMHO

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.

Namplao, thanks for all the updates on the refinery stocks. I picked up some fto on the double bottom today. I must admit, not to much has been helping this sector, oil rises, refineries fall, oil falls, refineries fall. One thing for sure is we will always need refined oil to drive so hopefully we have found a bottom. Always ready for the exit though. What the refineries need now is for demand for gas to go up as that has been down almost 3%, not good, but once oil levels out and fuel prices drop a little, fto, vlo, tso, sun, hoc should all start moving up.

GL, appreciate your time

Well I may have jumped the gun a bit so be careful. There appears to be more depth to these bottoms as you can see.

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I am not a broker....just a chartist that retired 4 years ago and invests in the stockmarket. Do your own DD and accept or reject my observations as you wish.