Tsx GCE.TO Thread

[Naamplao]

This is a continuation of posts that I made on this stock before the reorganization of this site. I first mentioned Grand Cache Coal a few months ago when it was $1.74 and starting its rebound. I didn't buy it myself until it reached $2.00 and I certainly have had a good ride so far and Think the ride is far from over at a price of $5.40 which is the current level April 18 8:10am

Company description

Here is a description of the company for those who are not familiar with them

Grande Cache Coal is an Alberta-based metallurgical coal mining company whose experienced team of coal professionals is operating a mining operation that produces metallurgical coal for the steel industry from its coal leases covering approximately 22,000 hectares in the Smoky River Coalfield located in west-central Alberta. Grande Cache Coal's common shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol "GCE".

There are a number of coal plays in Canada. Sherritt Intl (S.TO) is one I also own. Western Canadian Coal (WTN.TO) is another that I am contemplating ownership .

TA of the Charts

This is the only SharpChart that I can display. As I have said before I cannot display the one I really use.

GCE.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The chart shows nice steady growth over the past two month. Currently the stock seems to be going sideways, oscillating between $5.70 to $5.10 for the past for the past week.

The RSI is coming down from being "Oversold", the Accum/Dist is strong and positive (a nice sign for the future), the TRIX (15,9) is smoothing and topping out showing a faltering in the price rise. The Bollinger Bands are very wide so there will not be a dramatic change up or down in the near future.

Here is the P&F chart



The current situation of the stock price has a certain "Deja vu" look to it when you look back to the last plateau. There are reasonably clear resistance/support lines at $5.80/$5.20 respectfully. They are becoming stronger as time goes on.

This is a situation that requires watching. If we break above $5.80 then we are in for another pleasant ride. If it broke below $5.10 I would probably sell and collect profits



As of April 18 8:45am the stock has fell to $5.29 but it seems to show signs of recovering now. The BB's are wide so there may be sideways movement for a while.

An interesting (profitable) stock to watch if you were in this with me from the beginning. Is it time to take profit....not yet...maybe so...maybe not....I am betting on maybe not for now

[SNOAdmin]

All posts on GCE.TO go in this thread

[Naamplao]

Well as I thought we would, we pulled out of the nose dive and rebounded to end the day (April 18) at just shy of $5.60

There is nothing changed in my last TA. The support line @ $5.20 and resistance line @ $5.80 still exists

Looking at the 5 day line chart from Yahoo shows to me that the stock is staging for another assault on the $5.80 level. Things are looking quite positive there. I don't expect another fall back to support levels immediately.

Hopefully we close above $5.80 next week and this will become our new support level.

Have a good weekend

[Naamplao]

Yahooooooooo!!!!! (it is the Alberta western culture leaking out)

What a day! We didn't assault the $5.80 level!! We beat it up, crushed it and blitzed on by. Look at that 5 day chart below...we didn't look back. Look at that volume!!!

I am redrawing the P&F chart with a larger box of 20 cents



This chart shows we smashed through a second resistance level at $6.00...wow!
(you get this by drawing a diagonal from the shoulder at $7.60/$7.40 on the left of the gap)

Here is the SharpChart I used (finally figured out how to display the one I use)

GCE.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

What a beautiful chart! Nothing negative to say about it.

Do I expect another leap like this in the next few days...no (but it would be nice).

I think support is around $6.00 but I would not be upset if the price fell to $5.80 the previous resistance point. I think we may see some sideways movement for a few days....but then again the volume (I like the spread of volume throughout the day...not one or two large orders) is increased .... perhaps this will continue to rise...there will not be a great deal of pull back. If you want to buy in now or add to your existing stock I would set the bid at $6.00 or a bit more to catch a mild fallback before rising again.

I wonder how many have been in this with me since my first recommendation of the stock at $1.74??

[Naamplao]

So much for a slowdown...this stock just keeps on rolling. I suggested that those seeking to buy in might set their bids at $6.00 and the opening price leaped to $6.35 {yeah}

I sort of see mild resistance at $7.20 - $7.40 now. We could see the price fallback to the $6.00 at some time but that would not bother me too much. Currently 8:30MST the price is above the upper BB...not a signal of a fallback.

[Naamplao]

Well my predictions are not so hot lately {sigh}

The price has fallen back to $5.84 now. A fallback is reasonable but if it falls lower than $5.80 and closes there it would be time again to consider selling.

I looked at the insider trading and I don't like what I see.

Canadian Insider

Seems to be a fair bit of deposition of shares on the market so far this month.

This could be time to lock in profits.

Falling and closing below $5.80 would do it for me.

[Naamplao]

Well I came close to picking up my marbles and leaving But when the stock did fall below $5.80 it did not stay there.

We are now at $6.04 and here is the 5 day line chart from Yahoo.com



Well the chart looks like we will recover our losses next week. Perhaps we will move sideways for while....but then who knows? I like the run we have had on this stock but I am priming myself for the decision to sell if it stays below $5.80 at this time....but it could take off again...this was a bad week overall maybe better next week.

[Naamplao]

Well now we roll the dice. Do we sell and take profits or white-knuckle it out.

If you check out the 5 day Yahoo line chart you can clearly see the support at $5.40.

If you check out the P&F chart the same diagonal support line is there



I know I said I would consider selling at $5.80...but in truth this is the most difficult part of trading for me....selling.

I will definitely sell if it drops and stays below $5.40.....last chance here....

[Naamplao]

Scarry stuff...it dropped all the way to $5.07 but recovered to $5.47. The 5 day chart looks good for tomorrow but I think the writing is on the wall unless we have jettisoned the all who want to sell.

Yes it is near a time to sell IMHO

[Naamplao]

Sorry to say it....but it is time to collect profits and sell.

Would I rebuy in the future?...sure if it rebounded but when that happens cannot say.

It has been a nice ride.

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edited later
************************************************** ***********************
Ok...I decided to run through why I have decided to sell.

First of all I checked Canadian Insider training again

More insiders disposing shares on the market at $5.40 range

Canadian Insider

This webpage looks blood red with dispositions now....hmmmm....

The SharpChart is not looking good anymore

GCE.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Note: the BB's are getting tighter...the share price is in the lower section of the BB's and falling....not a good sign
The RSI is steadily falling from 70% and now stands to fall below 50%
The TRIX is arcing negatively and the Accum/Dist has plateaued slightly negative

The P&F chart is not clear-cut .... yet



It looks like it has stopped at a refrence line but in fact it has fallen through. The "High Pole Warning" means that those who designed the chart feel it is going to reverse and I think they are correct. In the past when we hit a support line we rebounded to higher levels quickly....not so in the last week.

So I take my profits now...If I can sell at $5.40 I will have made $3.40/share as my buy-in was at $2.00. I wish all my plays had this success

I will keep watching this stock though....the downturn may be just temporary and a buy-in again may be warranted.

As I said this was a nice ride.

[Naamplao]

Well I may have pulled the trigger too early and sold it. {story of my life} Nice rise and now it is facing the $5.80 resistance line.

Do I regret selling my holding? nopes. I wish all my picks would pay off so well in 3 months. This day aside I wonder if the rebound will be sustainable?

This is my last post for a while, though I will watch the share price. The chats I have given update automatically. Those that have no sold can consult them.

[Naamplao]

Hmmm...I don't know whether I made a good play or not long term but I certainly left money on the table.

I was caught in a P&F BearTrap This happens when you get a bear signal and act on it and there is an immediate reversal. I should have given it a few cents more leeway. {shrug}

Well if it clears $6.60 then I guess I did....But I don't chase a stock once I make a decision.

[Naamplao]

Well it is time to watch this stock again from my perspective. If you followed this thread then you know I sold out a way early at $5.40/share. I wonder how many reaped the benefits of the continued rise topping at about $10.40/share.

Wish I had such courage and not sold out but a profit is a profit and the stock is now returning to those levels again. I still believe coal is important especially with the rise in Oil. so let's look at the stock again.

Here is the SharpChart: GCE.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

This has one positive and it is a big one to me....more about that later...

The Bollinger Bands continue to expand and the share price is hugging the lower band...not good. The TRIX has been negative for a long time in spite of previous price rises....but not it is negative and headed for a negative value...not good. The RSI has fallen to the point of almost being "oversold" there is still downward pressure but when it falls below 30% then should be a buying opportunity when other indicators look better...the end is near...not so bad. The Share price smashed the 50 dayMA and shows no sign of reversal...not good.

The positive aspect of this chart is the Accum/Dist. Even though the stock has been declining dramatically...this indicator is showing a positive slope. There is still accumulation...not a massive selloff....I like that in a declining stock.

Let's look at the P&F chart



Look how it briefly broke through the resistance at $9.60 but fell back...the support for this stock is right where it is right now....at $6.40...this support is shown by both a horizontal line and from the diagonal from the columns to the left. It is a fairly strong support as a result....but will it hold remains to be seen. There are other supports shown in a P&F chart I did earlier with a $0.10 box and they show at $6.00 and $5.80....the major one is at $3.70 but I doubt we will reach that level.

The 5 day yahoo linechart is as follows:



You can see the support at $6.40 but it hardly seems very strong....I see us dropping further yet....at least into the $5.00 range.

So in conclusion...this stock will fall significantly further into at least the $5.00 range....then probably you will see some sideways movement and hopefully a positive drift. It is useless to talk about resistance points until we find the bottom to this fall.

But this is a stock that is interesting to me again so I will be commenting more on it in the future.