Tsx CLL.TO Thread

[Naamplao]

Question: Who has the second largest Oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia?
Ans: Not Venezuela, not Iraq, not Iran, ...... Canada!!!

From a comprehensive article on Wickopedia Athabasca Oil Sands - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Alberta government currently estimates that about 173 billion barrels (27,500,000,000 m³) of crude bitumen are economically recoverable from the three Alberta oil sands areas at current prices using current technology. This is equivalent to about 10% of the estimated 1,700 billion barrels (270,000,000,000 m³) of bitumen-in-place.[7] Alberta estimates that the Athabasca deposits alone contain 35 billion barrels (5,600,000,000 m³) of surface mineable bitumen and 98 billion barrels (15,600,000,000 m³) of bitumen recoverable by in-situ methods. These estimates of Canada's oil reserves were doubted when they were first published, but are now largely accepted by the international oil industry. This volume places Canadian proven oil reserves second in the world behind those of Saudi Arabia.

Question: Who has the safest most secure supply of oil for the USA? Answer: Canada!

Ha....but some might say there is more interest in fighting for oil than investing in it (a mild political comment...sorry)

The Tar Sands in Canada has several zones The Athabasca, Peace River and Cold Lake areas...the richest are in the Athabasca area.

Most of the larger oil companies in Canada have operations there: PetroCanada, Suncor, Syncrude, Encana Energy with share prices in the $50-$80 range....too rich for me.

I like two oil companies of all the junior Oil companies who are players in Canada's Tar Sand development: Connacher Oil and Gas (CLL.TO) and UTS Energy Corp (UTS.TO)

This thread will be about Connacher Oil and Gas. I will do another thread on UTS Energy soon.

Connacher Oil and Gas introduction

Here is a brief description of the company

Connacher Oil and Gas Limited is a Calgary-based Canadian oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The company's principal assets are its significant bitumen reserves and resources and its 100 percent interest in approximately 95,000 acres of oil sands leases in the Great Divide region near Fort McMurray, Alberta. It also owns conventional production and reserves at Marten Creek and Three Hills, Alberta and at Battrum, Saskatchewan. Connacher owns and operates a 9,500 barrel per day refinery in Great Falls, Montana and maintains a valuable 26 percent equity stake in Petrolifera Petroleum Limited (PDP - TSX), a public company active in Argentina, Colombia and Peru in South America.

This link details its oil reserves as of 2007: Connacher reports significant increases in reserves and 10% pre-tax present value during 2007: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

TA of Connacher O&G

Here is the line chart from Yahoo Finance



The chart is looking good. I believe this to be a response to the success of their Great Divide Pod One steam-assisted gravity drainage ("SAGD") project in Alberta's oil sands region.
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited breaks through 7,000 barrels per day of daily bitumen production at Great Divide Pod One; Corporate production surpasses 10,600 boe/d: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

The share price is rising well tagging the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI is strong (slightly overbought) and the MACD is strong as well. The 50dayMA is arching up so there should be a bullish crossing of the 50dayMA over the 200dayMA in the coming weeks.

Looking at the SharpChart the Accum/DIST is very positive along with the TRIX(15,9) All of this is very bullish.

A longer P&F view is very revealing



As can be seen, the stock price has broken through a resistance point at $3.75. It is uncertain where the support level will be right now but I see it rising to a real major resistance at $4.50...this is a major point to pass. If we pass this then it is pretty well clear sailing until $5.30.....then $5.90....then who knows where.

I would not expect the $4.50 mark to be easy to clear though.

Here is the short term 5 day line chart from Yahoo



This is a great chart to start off next week. Note the narrowing of the BB's and the fact that the share price is in the upper half of the BB.

I believe there will be a pleasant jump in price next week....perhaps even enough of a jump to challenge the $4.50 resistance ....(though I doubt it will breach it....yet)

[Naamplao]

Connacher O&G had a slight pullback but overall it is still looking pretty good.

Here is the SharpChart that I use

CLL.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The RSI has fallen out of the overbought zone (hence the pullback) but the TRIX , Accum/Dist show a nice positive trend.

The share price is tracking the upper BB nicely though the BB's are wide apart so I would expect some sideways movement next week.

You can see from the P&F chart below that the $4.50 level is an extremely stong resistance level but rising above this point leaves wide open skies for a while.

From the 5 day linechart from Yahoo we see the BB's are tight. I think we will see another assault to prices approaching the $4.50 level soon.

Strong oil prices and increasing production make the future look good for this stock IMO.

[Naamplao]

Here is the SharpChart again

CLL.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The stock has moved sideways since my last post. But look again at the shape...it is forming into a triangle and if you draw the lines it appears to be breaking out on the top side...though it could pull back a gain.

The RSI looks to be headed for 70% again, the 50dayMA is headed for the 200dayMA, the Accum/dist is bouncing off its 20dayMA.

The P&F chart hasn't changed much.

Here is the 5 day Yahoo linechart



The chart looks good for the start of the week...Hopefully we can assault the $4.50 level soon.

[Naamplao]

As can be shown in the 5 day Linechart from Yahoo.com, We have tried to breach the $4.50 resistance but it is pretty strong and we fell back. There is about 2 hours left in the trading day this May 9th. The BB's are tightening again...I think we will try again today...next week for sure.

Here is my SharpChart....it is all good!

CLL.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

[Naamplao]

Well it took some doing but the $4.50 level has finally been breached and now becomes our support level. Here is my sharpChart

CLL.TO - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

From all the positive signs in the indicators (there is nothing negative) the major event today is the recrossing of the 50dayMA over the 200dayMA...this is always a bullish sign.

From the P&F chart you can see how we cleared the resistance level ...this $4.50 becomes our support...though admittedly a bit tenuous at this point. However there is little resistance now until $5.30



The 5 day line chart shows we recovered nicely from yesterdays dip



We may have some minor difficulties getting over $4.60 but it won't be near as difficult as getting over $4.50